PVinsights: Rising speculation of polysilicon collapse

Polysilicon prices plummeted mildly as strong dollar against RMB. The polysilicon price in China has stabilized in RMB term this week amid unwound frenzy. However, as affected by the strengthened dollar, polysilicon price in China translates to a drop in the USD term. Furthermore, the rinsing production in the top manufacturers spurred concern global supplies are once again topping demand. On the other hand, the price uptrend in the overseas market has been halted by the cooling sentiment in China. As the result, the drop in spot price of polysilicon this week is mainly resulted from the appreciation of the greenback, but the halted rallies in China and overseas implies the weakening sentiment after the production retrieval introduced by REC Silicon.



Polysilicon prices plummeted mildly as strong dollar against RMB. The polysilicon price in China has stabilized in RMB term this week amid unwound frenzy. However, as affected by the strengthened dollar, polysilicon price in China translates to a drop in the USD term. Furthermore, the rinsing production in the top manufacturers spurred concern global supplies are once again topping demand. On the other hand, the price uptrend in the overseas market has been halted by the cooling sentiment in China. As the result, the drop in spot price of polysilicon this week is mainly resulted from the appreciation of the greenback, but the halted rallies in China and overseas implies the weakening sentiment after the production retrieval introduced by REC Silicon.

Multi-crystalline wafer price continuously remains pressured as affected by the slumping downstream prices, leading the price to slide consecutively this week. Although the demand has see signs of weakening since some of solar cell makers chose to shift production to mono-crystalline cells, most of the 1st tier solar cell makers still maintain certain amount of multi-crystalline wafer consumption. Hence, given that solid consumption and the high cost of polysilicon, multi-crystalline wafer suppliers are still vulnerable to accommodate with drastic price correction. On the other hand, as prompted by Chinese government policies to adopt higher efficiency products, the improving demand of mono-crystalline wafer has sustained the price to remain immobile this week despite the adverse effects from the slumping downstream prices.

Multi-crystalline cell price drops slightly this week. Although the lessened price competition and reduced supply of multi-crystalline cells have helped the price of multi-crystalline cell to stabilize in regional currencies, the strong dollar recently results a marginal price drop in USD term as the regional currencies weakens. On the other hand, mono-crystalline cell price slumps as the pressures increase with supply level piles up. Moreover, since the price gap between multi-crystalline and mono-crystalline cells is still over four percent, the mono-crystalline cell price still bears great downward pressures as the demand may falter due to the expanded price gap. Hence, mono-crystalline cell prices remain pressured due to swelled supply and expanded price gap.

Both multi-crystalline and mono-crystalline module prices extend the slump this week amid unclear demand outlook and persistent price competitions. In China, since the government has yet to announce the installation target for this year, the demand outlook remains ambiguous, leading buyers sentient to weaken and hence pressuring the prices. In EU and Japan, the solar panel prices remains pressured as the domestic demand slows. In the US, Chinese module makers continuously leverage its increasing trade-friendly capacities in attempts to penetrate the US market, which the demand is widely expected to be promising in the next five years. With the intense price competition, the solar panel prices in the US still bear great pressures. In India, the competitions between module makers are aggressive as local module makers and foreign rivals aim to win the solar projects. Furthermore, the appreciation of USD has also impact the regional solar panel prices to reflect a drop in USD term. Consequently, solar panel prices drop consecutively this week as the price competitions persist and the strong USD also pressure the price downwards partially.

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