PVinsights:The depreciation of RMB enhances solar slump

After a roaring start to the year, the excitement over polysilicon has dissipated this week due to the weakened sentiment and the RMB depreciation. In China, although Chinese polysilicon manufactures still intend to increase the price quote, the attempts are limited in success as buyers are reluctant to accept any further price hike. As the result, polysilicon price in China this week stays clam in RMB term, but convert into a slight drop in dollar term due to the depreciation of RMB. As for the polysilicon outside of China, the price tumbles more obviously than China, with spot price falling closer to $15/kg this week.

After a roaring start to the year, the excitement over polysilicon has dissipated this week due to the weakened sentiment and the RMB depreciation. In China, although Chinese polysilicon manufactures still intend to increase the price quote, the attempts are limited in success as buyers are reluctant to accept any further price hike. As the result, polysilicon price in China this week stays clam in RMB term, but convert into a slight drop in dollar term due to the depreciation of RMB. As for the polysilicon outside of China, the price tumbles more obviously than China, with spot price falling closer to $15/kg this week. As transactions of trade-friendly polysilicon become dull as sentiment cools down in China and REC silicon is restarting its FBR polysilicon production, polysilicon prices outside of China are pressured as the players dump the excess stockpiles.


The price correction of multi-crystalline wafer has enlarged this week as the 1st tier multi-crystalline wafer suppliers officially lowered the price quotes for June. Meanwhile, as the permissive sentiment on demand outlook extends to the third quarter, the weighing concerns on overall condition in June have created the downward pressure on multi-crystalline wafer prices. On the other hand, the price of mono-crystalline wafer in China remains relatively stable in RMB term this week as prompted by the strong demand, but converted into a tender drop in USD term as the greenback strengthens. Meanwhile, although the pressure on mono-crystalline wafer price outside China continues to build up, the high cost of polysilicon level has given the mono-crystalline suppliers a good reason to maintain a stable mono-crystalline wafer price. However, with the expanding price difference between multi- crystalline and mono-crystalline wafers, the strength of mono-crystalline wafer price may not be sustainable.

Multi-crystalline cell extends the price slump this week amid the lackluster demand outlook and unclear order visibility. In a week, multi-crystalline cell price in Taiwan falls closer to approximately $0.293/watt, while the price in China drops more obviously to below $0.29/watt as the depreciation of RMB further deteriorates the price. Moreover, as multi-crystalline wafer starts to see enlarged price correction, it releases more room for multi-crystalline cell makers to further lower the price. Furthermore, as more 1st tier Chinese vertically integrated manufacturers increases their cell capacities in overseas, multi-crystalline cell price out of Taiwan and China has plummet more severely during the week. Meanwhile, mono-crystalline cell price had more noticeable drop than multi-ones this week. Due to the higher margin of mono-crystalline cell, more producers shift toward higher efficiency monocrystalline cells as to ease a glut of multi-crystalline cell capacity. Nevertheless, the rising speculations on sluggish demand in 3Q and the slumped prices from downstream continue to push the price downwards. Moreover, in order to maintain the mono-crystalline market share, mono-crystalline cell makers offer further price reduction in attempts to curtail the outstanding price difference between mono- and multi-crystalline cells.

The module price weakens, extending its long streak of decline this week. Chinese module makers are becoming increasingly bearish on the domestic demand in China in Q3 as signs of demand stress persist before the Chinese government officially releases the solar program and target for the year. Therefore, in order to maintain their shipment targets of this year, Chinese module makers actively approach other global markets with pricing strategy, in SEA, India, and the US. In the US, Chinese module makers are striving to meet its shipment target to the US this year while keeping expanding its oversea capacities, and cutting price aggressively in the US as a strategy to capture more shares in the market with the highest selling price. In EU and Japan, although the prices are still being pressured, the demand has kept the price to be more sustainable. Consequently, solar panel prices extend the drop this week as affected by the persistent price competition lead by Chinese module makers and the strengthen greenback.

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