CNY Depreciation Keeps Weakening Solar Prices

Polysilicon prices keep declining amid the continuous CNY depreciation against USD this week. As major buyers remain cautious of placing the purchasing orders, polysilicon prices in China hold steady in CNY term, but are translated into a drop in the US dollar term. Meanwhile, since some Chinese polysilicon suppliers recently released their 1Q19 financial results with total cost and cash cost lower than USD 7.5/Kg and USD6.3/Kg, respectively, this suggests that the current polysilicon prices are still too high to reach the long term price bottom. Since major polysilicon suppliers attempt to leverage the further polysilicon cost reduction through their newly added capacity in China, all buyers are revised their target asking price down. With the increasing low cost supply, major buyers strengthen wait-and-see stance on the procurements at this moment.

Polysilicon prices keep declining amid the continuous CNY depreciation against USD this week. As major buyers remain cautious of placing the purchasing orders, polysilicon prices in China hold steady in CNY term, but are translated into a drop in the US dollar term. Meanwhile, since some Chinese polysilicon suppliers recently released their 1Q19 financial results with total cost and cash cost lower than USD 7.5/Kg and USD6.3/Kg, respectively, this suggests that the current polysilicon prices are still too high to reach the long term price bottom. Since major polysilicon suppliers attempt to leverage the further polysilicon cost reduction through their newly added capacity in China, all buyers are revised their target asking price down. With the increasing low cost supply, major buyers strengthen wait-and-see stance on the procurements at this moment.


Multi-crystalline wafer prices drop consecutively this week as mainly dragged down by weakening Chinese Yuan. Since the impact on the downstream capacity transition to high efficiency mono-crystalline PERC technology has been diminished as the adoption of China domestic projects to multi-crystalline modules has been increasingly seen to support the current pricing in CNY term. However, amid signs of demand recovery in China, multi-crystalline wafer prices are still facing compounding pressures as major buyers requested further price reduction amid the sufficient supply. On the other hand, the supply and demand of mono-crystalline wafers are relatively balanced to keep the price steady this week as lots of downstream mono-crystalline PERC cell and wafer production capacity has been ramping up since 2Q19. Meanwhile, the expensive mono-crystalline PERC cell prices in China also ban the downstream demand from the further growing as major players still intended to keep the profit margin.

The increasing demand inquiries have sent multi-crystalline cell prices to stable in CNY term, as supported by suppliers' ebbing appetite for mono-crystalline cell production capacity. Furthermore, since there is no price improvement on the downstream multi-crystalline solar panels, solar cell buyers are not able to accept the further solar cell price increasing. In overseas markets, multi-crystalline cell buyers extended the procurement dip as downstream buyers in India grow bearish on the outlook after some solar project auctions in India keep refraining from the backdrop of brewing cost problems. Meanwhile, mono-crystalline PERC cell demand has gradually waned, lingering worries about the demand backsliding have sent prices stable or drop mildly. With the subsidy-free target in China, the demand for high-price mono-PERC cell has obviously lost momentum since the system BOS constraint punctures buyers' demand.

Dollar strength has been a key factor dragging mono-crystalline PERC module prices down over the week, even as major Chinese suppliers are not having sufficient supply at this moment. In China, although the price modification to mono-crystalline PERC module in regional currency is limited by the pricey upstream materials, the depreciation of CNY against the US dollar sends some module prices down in USD term. Besides, in China, major Chinese project developers are now turning their procurements to low price multi-crystalline module to fit their system BOS. On the other hand, with the decreasing supply from China, since major solar panel makers have seen increasing inquiries in China to multi-crystalline solar panels, some multi-crystalline module prices improve slightly and fully offset the CNY depreciation this week.

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