According to Vision Research Reports, the global lithium-ion battery market size is projected to reach around USD 183.8 billion by 2030 and growing at a CAGR of 17.81% from 2022 to 2030
The global Li-ion battery market is moving into surge mode. Just look at the figures for 2020 - 2021. According to our newly released Li-ion battery database, global shipments in 2021 equated to 476.3 GWh, amounting to a 72.6% increase on 2020, and that wasn't a blip. We've identified it as being part of a longer-term trend. Let's have a look at some more figures and identify the drivers to the Li-ion battery revolution.
The global lithium-ion battery market size was surpassed at USD 42.03 billion in 2021 and is expected to hit around USD 183.8 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 17.81% from 2022 to 2030
- The LCO segment accounted for the largest revenue share of over 30.07% in 2021.
- The consumer electronics segment held the largest revenue share of over 40.2% in 2021.
- The Asia Pacific led the market with a revenue share of over 40.15% in 2021.
Demand from EV outstrips all others, but energy storage is the growth story
Unsurprisingly, it's the electric vehicle sector that is driving demand for Li-ion battery technology. In 2021, EV battery shipments accounted for 354.5 GWh, representing 74.4% of total battery shipments and a phenomenal year-on-year increase in EV battery shipments of 90.2%. But the increase of shipments in the same period to the energy storage sector (ESS) was even more marked - 113.3%. Accounting for 11.8% of total battery shipments, ESS is way behind the EV sector in terms of demand, but the huge 2021 increase is a clear pointer to sustained future growth. Meanwhile, consumer electronics (CE) battery shipments totalled 65.5 GWh, representing 13.8% of total shipments, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%.
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The market is expected to witness significant growth over the forecast period on account of the increasing consumption of rechargeable batteries in consumer electronics and a rise in the adoption of electric vehicles. The rising sales of electric vehicles, along with the expanding renewable energy sector, are expected to drive the market. The emergence of integrated charging stations, green power-generation capability, eMobility providers, battery manufacturers, and energy suppliers is anticipated to stimulate market growth in the coming years.
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Increasing sales of electric vehicles in the U.S. owing to supportive federal policies, coupled with the presence of market players in the country, are expected to drive the demand for lithium-ion batteries in the U.S. over the forecast period. Favorable government policies for infrastructural developments at the domestic level through the National Infrastructural Plan (NIP) of the U.S. are expected to promote the growth of the market in the U.S. over the forecast period. Development of the automotive industry in Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, Thailand, and India is expected to drive the industry. The growing inclination toward pollution-free HEVs and EVs, along with technological developments, is expected to drive the lithium-ion battery demand over the forecast period. China is expected to witness high gains in light of energy storage technologies and favorable government support to promote investments in the manufacturing sector.
The growing number of portable consumer electronics that rely on batteries has led to the increased consumption of rechargeable batteries. Portable devices including smartphones, digital cameras, MP3 players, and laptops require rechargeable batteries to provide efficient and effective power. Battery technology is evolving continuously to meet the high performance and power density requirements of devices. High demand for LCO batteries in mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and cameras on account of their high energy density and high safety level is expected to augment the market growth over the forecast period. However, the relatively short life span of LCO batteries, coupled with low thermal stability and limited load capabilities (specific power), is likely to act as a market restraint.
Electric and hybrid electric vehicles are projected to be the key consumers of lithium-ion batteries in the coming years. Growing awareness among the masses regarding the benefits offered by battery-operated vehicles and increasing fossil fuel prices, particularly in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, are projected to contribute to the growth of the automotive application segment over the forecast period. COVID-19 has been a major restraint to the market owing to several factors including reducing operational costs by end-users, coupled with disruption in the availability of spare parts due to sluggish manufacturing activities and logistics issues.
Increase in Demand for Electric Vehicles to Drive Global Lithium-ion Battery Market
The demand for lithium-ion batteries is expected to witness rapid growth due to the rise in demand for electric vehicles. As the market for electric vehicles grows globally, lithium-ion batteries are witnessing increasing demand due to their high energy density per unit mass in comparison with other electrical energy storage technologies. Additionally, they have an excellent high temperature performance, a high power to weight ratio, great energy economy, and minimal self-discharge.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), after a decade of explosive growth, there were 10 million electric automobiles on the roads of the world by the year 2020. Despite the global auto industry slump brought on by the pandemic, which saw a 16% decline in global auto sales, the number of electric car registrations rose by 41% in 2020. Global sales of electric vehicles were at 3 million (a 4.6 percent sales share).
Furthermore, vehicle manufacturers around the world had announced their electrification plans. Of the top 20 vehicle manufacturers globally, which represent 90% registration of new cars in 2020, 18 have stated their plan to diversify their product portfolio and scale up production of high-duty electric vehicles.
Rise in Demand for Consumer Electronics to Boost Use of Lithium-ion Batteries
The demand for lithium batteries has been increasing with the growing demand for consumer electronic products such as mobile phones and laptops, as these batteries are widely used in these products. Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in consumer electronics, due to their rechargeable quality. Moreover, lithium-ion battery pack offers high power, and also has higher energy density compared to other battery types. These factors are leading to an increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries in consumer electronic products.
Furthermore, lithium-ion batteries have low environmental impact as lithium is non-toxic and can be recycled completely; also, it has fast charging capacity compared to other types of batteries. Besides, lithium-ion batteries have a longer life due to their modest rate of self-discharge. As a result of this, a lithium-ion battery has an average lifespan of more than eight years. This lifespan can be increased with proper upkeep and servicing. In comparison with other battery types, lithium-on batteries perform well in high-power applications and have the ability to supply higher current. This is expected to increase in demand for lithium batteries globally.
Extensive Usage of Lithium Cobalt Oxide (LCO) in Consumer Electronics
In terms of product type, the lithium-ion battery market has been classified into lithium iron phosphate (LFP), lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium manganese oxide (LMO), lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (NCA), and lithium titanate oxide (LTO). The LCO type is expected to hold the highest market share during the forecast period, owing to its extensive use in consumer electronic products such as mobile phones, laptops, and cameras. Moreover, the market for lithium iron phosphate is also projected to grow during the forecast period, owing to its increasing popularity for use in applications requiring large amount of power.
Rise in Preference for Electric Vehicles Due to Petrol and Diesel Price Hike
Lithium-ion batteries are used in various end-use industries among which the automotive industry is expected to witness the highest growth rate due to the popularity of electric vehicles. People these days are more aware about the benefits of battery operated vehicles. Moreover, the increasing price of petrol and diesel in regions such as Asia Pacific, North America, and Europe has increased consumer awareness about the use of EVs which drives the demand for lithium-ion batteries, thus fueling the lithium-ion battery market growth.
Furthermore, the consumer electronics segment in the lithium-ion battery market is also projected to grow at a high rate during the forecast period, owing to increase in demand for consumer electronic products such as smartphones, laptops, etc.
Impact of Ukraine conflict will be limited
Russia and Ukraine have vast untapped lithium reserves, and Russia is currently a big exporter of nickel, palladium, aluminium, platinum, steel, and copper. The situation in Ukraine and the resultant sanctions on Russia will therefore will inevitably lead to shortages in the supply of some industrial raw materials. The Li-ion battery market will be impacted to some extent, but we do not think the effects will be massive. In terms of lithium, the key point is that most reserves in Russia and Ukraine are as yet untapped. The war has delayed plans to extract it, but it has not taken much existing production offline.
Looking out to 2026
We estimate that global demand for li-ion batteries will rise to over 1.6TWh by 2026, representing a 5-year CAGR of 27.9%. The share of shipments to EV manufacturers will remain stable, standing at 75.9% of the total, but there'll be growth in demand from the ESS sector, with shipments forecast to total 312.4 GWh, accounting for 19.2% of all battery shipments: a 5-year CAGR of 40.9%. CE battery shipments are expected to total 81.3 GWh over the 5-year period, with a CAGR of 4.4%.
APAC to dominate the demand market
In terms of regional demand, APAC will dominate throughout the forecast period. The region gobbled up 75.1% of all battery shipments in 2021, and will almost maintain its share going up to 2026, when it will hit 74.3%. But we expect the Li-ion battery market in the Americas to enjoy the highest growth rate over the next 5 years, when it will see a CAGR of 29.5%. EMEA will follow, with a 27.9% CAGR, and only then APAC at 27.6%. Despite the relatively higher Americas and EMEA demand growth rates, though, the increase in production capacity is a gradual process. Even 2-3 years from now, neither region will be able to meet all its local demand.
Battery OEMs - no end in sight to production constraints
The big question about OEMs is: are they bringing new manufacturing capacity online quickly enough? Currently, battery supply is very tight, and this situation will last until 2023. Supple is so tight that, when vehicle manufacturers make their production plans, they must first reserve battery production capacity in advance. Battery supply issues have led many battery OEMs to lay out incredibly ambitions plans to expand their battery production capacity. According to our battery production capacity tracking database, though, these plans will be slow to roll out in practice. Many battery OEMs are trumpeting production targets such as 50 GWh, but a lot of this is spin. The reality is that many of the most ambitious battery capacity expansion plans have much more modest roll out plans, which are usually in phased sections of more like 10 GWh. For this reason, we believe high-quality production capacity will be lacking for a long time.
Market shares of LFP and NCM/NCA batteries to be even by 2026
The market share of different Li-ion battery technologies is changing. Back in 2018, lithium cobalt (LCO) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries accounted for over 50% of the global market. But LCO's share has steadily declined over the past three years, in line with the decline in growth of the consumer electronics sector. Conversely, the demand for high quality nickel-cobalt-aluminium oxide (NCA)/ nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries from the electric vehicle and industrial energy storage sectors has exceeded supply, which is why many battery makers announced plans to expand production capacity between 2018 and 2020. We forecast that the market shares of LFP batteries and NCM/NCA batteries will be evenly divided by 2026.
The LCO segment accounted for the largest revenue share of over 30.07% in 2021. High demand for LCO batteries in mobile phones, tablets, laptops, and cameras on account of their high energy density and high safety level is expected to augment the market growth over the forecast period. LFP batteries offer excellent safety and a long lifespan to the product. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are projected to become more prominent in portable and fixed applications that demand high load currents and endurance.
Rising demand for NCA on account of its high specific energy, specific power, and long lifespan is expected to augment the market growth over the forecast period. NCA finds use in EV vehicles, medical devices, and industrial applications. Increasing consumption of lithium titanate in various applications including electric powertrains, streetlights, UPS, and solar-powered street lighting is likely to fuel segment growth over the coming years. LTO offers various properties including safety, low-temperature performance, and high lifespan, which is expected to fuel the segment growth over the forecast period.
The consumer electronics segment held the largest revenue share of over 40.2% in 2021. Portable batteries are incorporated in portable devices and consumer electronic products. The applications of portable batteries include mobile phones, laptops, computers, tablets, torches or flashlights, LED lighting, vacuum cleaners, digital cameras, wristwatches, calculators, hearing aids, and other wearable devices. The electric and hybrid electric vehicle market is projected to witness lucrative growth over the forecast period. Growing awareness regarding the benefits of battery-operated vehicles and increasing fossil fuel prices, particularly in Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, are projected to favor the growth.
Lithium-ion batteries are also utilized for providing backup power supply for commercial buildings, data centers, and institutions. In addition, lithium-ion battery is preferred for energy storage in residential solar PV systems. These factors will boost the growth of the energy storage systems application segment in the forecast period. Lithium-ion batteries are used in numerous industrial applications such as power tools, cordless tools, marine equipment and machinery, agricultural machinery, industrial automation systems, aviation, military and defense, electronics, civil infrastructure, and oil and gas.
The Asia Pacific led the market with a revenue share of over 40.15% in 2021. The rise in environmental concerns has resulted in China banning conventional fossil fuel-powered scooters from all its major cities to reduce emissions, leading to an increase in the sales of e-scooters in the country. The emergence of Asia Pacific as a global manufacturing hub has resulted in the increased adoption of tools that are powered by lithium-ion batteries. Moreover, the region has the largest population in the world. This results in high sales of consumer electronics such as mobiles and laptops in the Asia Pacific that utilize lithium-ion batteries for their operations.
The growing electric vehicles market in Asia Pacific countries, such as India and China, is one of the major factors that is positively influencing the demand for lithium-ion batteries. The market in Germany is expected to witness reasonable growth over the forecast period owing to the increasing use of lithium-ion batteries in energy storage systems, electric vehicles, and consumer electronics. Germany is the world's leading market for energy storage systems as well as the development of renewable energies.
Key Benefits for Lithium-ion Battery Market:
- The Lithium-ion Battery market analysis covers in-depth information of major industry participants.
- Porter's five forces analysis helps to analyze the potential of buyers & suppliers and the competitive scenario of the industry for strategy building.
- Major countries have been mapped according to their individual revenue contribution to the regional market.
- The report provides an in-depth analysis of the Lithium-ion Battery market during the forecast period (2022-2030).
- The report outlines the current market trends and future scenario of the global Lithium-ion Battery market to understand the prevailing opportunities and potential investment pockets.
- The key drivers, restraints, and opportunities and their detailed impact analysis is elucidated in the study.
BYD Company Ltd.
Samsung SDI Co., Ltd.
By Product Outlook
Lithium cobalt oxide (LCO)
Lithium iron phosphate (LFP)
Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (NCA)
Lithium Manganese Oxide (LMO)
Lithium Titanate (LTO)
Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt (LMC)
By Application Outlook
Energy Storage Systems
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