PV InfoLink will discuss the global solar PV supply chain market outlook in the second half of this year with industry heavyweights in Shanghai on June 3.
A seminar titled "2H19 PV Market Outlook and Forecast" will be held in Shanghai on June 3, one day prior to SNEC, to discuss global supply chain market outlook in the second half of this year.
Held by PV InfoLink, a leading solar market intelligence provider, the seminar will bring together PV manufacturers, developers, EPC, and investors to explore major issues revolving the industry and help participants gain valuable insights for navigating the expanding solar market.
PV InfoLink has invited Chinese major companies, including Jinko, Longi, and GCL-Si, to discuss impact of China's transition to a subsidy-free market.
This year, China's demand will revive later than usual due to policy uncertainty. Moreover, Japan and India, China's two major trading partners, saw weakening demand after the end of fiscal 2018 in March. The lowest level of demand is now upon Q2.
Chinese demand is expected to rebound considerably in July and remain strong through Q1 2020. Overseas demand, on the other hand, is usually better in H2 than H1. Driven by both Chinese and overseas demand, the overall demand will surge dramatically in H2 this year.
Under the terms of the consultation paper, priority would be given to historic projects that opt to become grid parity ones voluntarily over this year's subsidized projects. With limited electricity consumption quota in each province, unsubsidized projects will be favored over capacity demand from this year's new projects under quota system. Therefore, PV InfoLink revised down China's module demand from 43GW to 36GW.
Looking into draft subsidy policy, China will allocate roughly CNY 3 billion to subsidy schemes this year. Apart from poverty alleviation program, the rest of the projects will be included in the subsidy schemes. Commercial distribution and ground-mounted projects will have to participate in the bidding process, meaning that installation quota for subsidized projects will be determined by bidding results. Under bidding mechanism, Chinese demand for multi modules is likely to rise, leading to a steady increase in multi module prices after July's rebound.
Overviewing the entire supply chain, upstream market prices in April have experienced a rapid fall. After stabilized supply and demand rebound in July, prices are expected to bottom out in May. Whereas mono prices in the supply chain are relatively steady, mono PERC module demand will remain strong throughout the year. Though the low season in Q2 may see a slight price downtrend, overall prices will stay around USD 0.27-0.285 without much fluctuation.
PV InfoLink provides the most up-to-date market information and accurate price quotes in the supply chain on a weekly basis, which is used by most large companies as index for price negotiation to stay competitive in the market. Details on how to attend the seminar can be found through the event page.