Navigant Research Report Shows North American Sales of Plug-In EVs Are Expected to Reach over 2.6 Million by 2030

Market barriers to adoption are gradually eroding as EV technologies continue to mature

A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the impact that purchase incentives, battery pack prices, vehicle availability, and zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) policies have on the North American plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) population diffusion.


Despite slowed market growth, PEV sales are on track for another record year in North America and worldwide. PEVs are increasingly being considered by more consumers as a top choice for their next vehicle purchase, more states are implementing purchase incentives and are in talks to adopt ZEV policies, and the price of PEV technologies continues to decline. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @NavigantRSRCH, in 2019, North American light duty PEV sales were anticipated to increase 8% from the prior year, with sales expected to grow throughout the forecast period to nearly 2.7 million PEVs by 2030.

"PEVs are expected to represent about 14% of the market share for total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in North America by 2030," says Raquel Soat, research analyst with Navigant Research. "Several challenges remain that hinder the PEV market, such as consumer awareness, need for stakeholder investment in public charging infrastructure, and ambiguity in current federal regulatory policy, but these challenges are gradually eroding as EV technologies continue to mature."

According to the report, PEV populations have typically clustered around urban areas in states with incentives, with buyers being male, highly educated, and in upper income brackets. However, a shift in demographics and vehicle population is beginning to occur. Emissions, fuel efficiency, and ZEV policies continue to be key in increasing the adoption and awareness of PEVs.

The report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast - North America, analyzes the impact that purchase incentives, battery pack prices, vehicle availability, and ZEV policies have on PEV population diffusion by state/province and metropolitan areas. Using the Vehicle Adoption Simulation Tool (VAST), Navigant Research believes battery pack prices, vehicle availability, purchase incentives, and ZEV policies are crucial to understanding PEV adoption, and can offer recommendations to stakeholders based on changes to these four forecast levels. New additions to the 2019 version of the Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts report include charging port forecasts on a national and state/province level as a function of vehicle adoption in the area, as well as EV sales and population broken out by vehicle class (passenger cars and light trucks). An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

About Navigant Research

Navigant Research, the dedicated research arm of Guidehouse, provides market research and benchmarking services for rapidly changing and often highly regulated industries. In the energy sector, Navigant Research focuses on in-depth analysis and reporting about global clean technology markets. The team's research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of clean, intelligent, mobile, and distributed energy. Additional information about Navigant Research can be found at www.navigantresearch.com.

About Guidehouse

Guidehouse is a leading global provider of consulting services to the public and commercial markets with broad capabilities in management, technology, and risk consulting. We help clients address their toughest challenges with a focus on markets and clients facing transformational change, technology-driven innovation and significant regulatory pressure. Across a range of advisory, consulting, outsourcing, and technology/analytics services, we help clients create scalable, innovative solutions that prepare them for future growth and success. Headquartered in Washington DC, the company has more than 7,000 professionals in more than 50 locations. Guidehouse is led by seasoned professionals with proven and diverse expertise in traditional and emerging technologies, markets and agenda-setting issues driving national and global economies. For more information, please visit: www.guidehouse.com.

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, Market Data: EV Geographic Forecast - North America, is a summary and reflects Navigant Research's current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report's conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Navigant Research nor Guidehouse undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.

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